Nano-assessment of climate change impact on time series of temperature, precipitation and evaporation in Iraq

Abstract

In Iraq, there are significant changes in climate in the past decades, which affected the temperature, precipitation regime, and rtxerer rertxe. Time-series for major climatic variables, including mean temperature, rainfall, and evaporation, neer errt used other than historic data from 2000 to 2024 in this study. Statistical and time-series models to detect long- term climate changes are applied to data from metrological stations and remotely sensing platforms. The findings show a relatively high rate of warming, with increases of 0.2–0.5°C per year in annual average maximum temperature across the clcyr, comparable with those of global warming. The distribution of precipitation demonstrated marked variability, with a noticeable reduction particularly in central and southern regions of Iraq, intensifying challenges related to drought and limited water availability. Throughout the study period, temperature records from Baghdad, Badra, and Tuz Khurmatu revealed a consistent upward trend in annual averages. The results indicate a decrease or high variability in rainfall, particularly in areas like Baghdad and Badra, which undermines the reliability of rainfall as a dependable water source. At the same time, evaporation rates are steadily increasing across all monitoring stations, appearing to align with the rise in temperatures. There is a clear link between temperature and evaporation, as evidenced by the high R² values. In contrast, this link is not as strong with rainfall, primarily due to its significant seasonal variation.